Political prediction markets, live
Odds from Polymarket, refreshed every minute. Big moves explained, with sources.
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Jumps we explained
The latest big moves in the markets we track, and what caused them.
All markets
How we explain a move
A jump is any move big and fast enough to matter. Each one goes through the same four steps.
Spot the jump
We watch every market we cover and flag moves above a set size within a short time window.
Find the cause
We look for news, official statements and filings published just before and during the move.
Rate our confidence
Every explanation gets one of three labels, so you know how much weight to give it.
Check if it held
After 24 hours and again after 7 days, we record whether the price stayed or came back.
- Confirmed cause
- Clear, public news landed right before the move, and nothing else fits.
- Likely cause
- Related news exists and the timing fits, but it is not confirmed yet.
- No news found
- Nothing public explains it. Often one large trade in a thin market.